The population growth in France

Between 1600 and 1700, the population increased from 20 million to 21 million, and in 1801 it reached 29.4 million. Thus, for these two successive centuries, there have been increases of 1 million vs. 8 million respectively, i.e. average relative growth rates per year of 0.5 vs. 3.3. Or about 10500 children more than generational renewal in the 16th century vs. 7000 in the 17th.

A simple exponential increase would have involved increases of 1 million vs. 1.05 million, which would mean supernumerary births from 10500 to only 11025. It is obvious that a major growth factor has occurred in the meantime.

The growth that began in 1780 continued on the same slope until 1900, with a slight upward inflection around 1820, which was difficult to explain by an increase in life expectancy, which was very stable between the Napoleonic wars and the 1870 war. It therefore seems that the same cause is still at work.

Then growth accelerated sharply in the middle of the Second World War, with the baby boom, explained by the natalistic policy and the placing on the market of penicillin in 1942.

What interests us here are the significant variations of the early eighteenth century. The slope of the lines closest to the demographic data is multiplied by a factor 16! Given that there was little immigration at that time, and that the lifespan increased very little (about 15%), such an acceleration obviously has one or more other causes.

It is certainly not the prospect of an unlikely, happier, industrialized life that triggered this first demographic momentum. The rise in the standard of living to which it is attributed dates back much later. The great inventions that paved the way for progress were made in the 18th century, such as Papin’s pot, ancestor of Watt’s steam engine at the end of the century. The industrial progress of the period changed the living conditions of the population only very gradually in the 19th and 20th centuries.

Medical progress, with the starting mark of which was given by Jenner (vaccine against smallpox) and then Pasteur (vaccine against rabies), started to spread only from the 19th century. Smallpox remained endemic until after World War II.

Feeding may have contributed to the number of involuntary designs. During breastfeeding, ovulation is generally inhibited. However, babies who were not breastfed had mortality rates up to 70%. This factor also does not explain the strong population growth of the early eighteenth century.

A change in sexual behaviour remains, multiplying conceptions, the origin of which must be explained.