demographic transition

Demographers, not knowing how to stop the explosion of the world’s population or reassure their audiences, fall back on the model of the “demographic transition”, defined as follows:

After a long period of poverty, people who suddenly benefit from improved living conditions as a result of advances in industry and agriculture are experiencing a first phase of population growth, mainly due to longer lifespan. Then the “changing habits” associated with the new standing would encourage individuals to limit the number of births during a second phase. This would establish a post-transitional period, maintaining an almost constant population, avoiding overexploitation of the environment.

The model is fundamentally optimistic, if not irresponsible. It certainly seems to be confirmed by the fact that it is possible to do so in different European countries which, after a period of high birth and longer life expectancy, have seen their demographic curve stabilise or even decrease slightly. But can we extrapolate these results to Third World countries in bad progress?

First, it should be noted that the psychosocial mechanisms supposed to explain the relationship between access to progress, “change of manners” and birth limitation have never been clearly elucidated. It is therefore extremely imprudent to go on to rely on supposed changes in habits to assert that the same chains would take place in a different cultural context. It is quite possible that the post-war phenomenon, or that the emergence of new ideologies (May 68?) were the driving forces behind it, which will not be the same in other parts of the world.

It is primarily psychological mechanisms that push people to adjust their fertility rates. These mechanisms depend on the culture in which individuals are immersed. Thus, one conclusion can only be drawn from the example of stabilized countries: that accession to the benefits of progress has led to a reduction in fertility rates in the cultural context of the countries concerned. There is no way to extrapolate this data to countries with another culture, including another religion.

The fall in the birth rate in the West is partly due to the new commitment of women in the world of work and to the principle of parity, which allows them to choose the number of children desired. Different religious barriers could block this mechanism or even reverse it in the longer term. The demographic weakening is perceived a priori as a danger to other nations. The kamikaze spirit could worsen the situation: so much worse if the majority is swept away by the ecological disaster, if we hurry to beget, there will remain more descendants of our blood…

As much as we Westerners are challenged by environmental problems and by limiting the number of our descendants, so many other populations could even react in reverse. Some States may fear that their population will be decimated and their values, including their religion and military power, put in minority by other Honduran nations. It is quite possible that some parts of the world’s population will decide to force on births, in order to better impose on what will become international competition in the context of a crisis that will not fail to settle.

The time factor must also be taken into account: in Europe, it took generations for the effects of progress to lead to population stabilization. In a different cultural context, with a lesser awareness of environmental damage, and the glare produced by a very recent change in standard of living, this time lag could be longer.

Even if the alleged process takes place more quickly, for example under the influence of the media today, which is more prevalent than a few decades ago, the time it takes for a change of mentality to settle down, and then efficient birth control leads to population stabilization, is likely to be too long for environmental damage not to exceed the threshold of irreversibility.

Many other unforeseeable considerations can influence behaviour and make the demographic transition model lie. It would be naive to rely on purely analogue forecasts to reassure and neglect the most basic measures.

To begin by trying to understand the mechanisms of the current demographic explosion, including the underlying psychosexual mechanisms. We won’t rule it without this elementary knowledge.